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{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"h2"},"children":["Market & Demand"]}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"body2"},"children":["Iceland's heating market is structurally split: roughly 90% of housing sits on geothermal district heating, where there is almost no product demand beyond radiators and controls. The addressable market for heating products is the remaining ~10% on electric or oil heat, plus supplementary and portable heaters everywhere."]}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Chart","props":{"height":300,"option":{"tooltip":{"trigger":"item","formatter":"{b}: {c}%"},"legend":{},"series":[{"type":"pie","radius":["45%","70%"],"label":{"formatter":"{b}: {c}%"},"data":[{"name":"Geothermal district","value":90},{"name":"Electricity","value":9},{"name":"Oil (under 1%)","value":1}]}]}}}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"caption","color":"black55"},"children":["Share of Iceland's housing by heating source. Source: Samorka (Icelandic energy and utilities association). The oil slice is stated as just under 1% and is plotted as 1%. Orkustofnun separately puts the geothermal share of domestic heating energy at about 90% (2020)."]}}
{"frame":"table","columns":[{"id":"signal","header":"Signal","size":200},{"id":"reading","header":"Reading","size":330},{"id":"source","header":"Source and class","size":220}]}
{"frame":"row","signal":"Heat pump imports, 2020-2024","reading":"CAGR of 26.53%","source":"6Wresearch, Iceland residential heat pump report (market-report estimate)"}
{"frame":"row","signal":"Heat pump imports, 2023 to 2024","reading":"Decline of 10.46%","source":"6Wresearch (market-report estimate)"}
{"frame":"row","signal":"Electric savings after heat pump install","reading":"Average 29.3% reduction across 128 households (small 5-9 kW units about 26%, large 9-14.4 kW units about 31%)","source":"Springer, Int. J. Energy and Environmental Engineering, based on Icelandic energy authority data"}
{"frame":"row","signal":"Households on subsidised electric or oil heat","reading":"Just under 10% of homes","source":"Umhverfis- og orkustofnun (UOS)"}
{"frame":"row","signal":"Google search interest in Iceland","reading":"Too sparse to chart. Icelandic terms for heat pump, electric heater and fan heater returned mostly zero values over five years, and the related-queries call returned nothing","source":"Google Trends, geo IS (search-interest proxy, not demand)"}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"body2"},"children":["Direction is structural, not cyclical: heat pumps are the one growth product, driven by electric-heated homes outside district-heating zones. The import dip in 2024 is a single-year move against a strong multi-year trend, so treat it as noise until a second year confirms it. No unit or revenue market size is published in the open sources I could read."]}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"h2"},"children":["Retail Products"]}}
{"frame":"products","layout":"grid"}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://media.backend.elko.is/products/htoi30wt11_s.jpg","name":"Nedis olíufylltur rafmagnsofn 2500W","price":"17.995 kr.","href":"https://elko.is/vorur/nedis-oliufylltur-rafmagnsofn-2500w-310670/HTOI30WT11","description":"2500 W, 3 heat settings, heats up to 25 m2","source":{"name":"ELKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://media.backend.elko.is/products/htoi30wt9_s.jpg","name":"Nedis olíufylltur rafmagnsofn 2000W","price":"15.995 kr.","href":"https://elko.is/vorur/nedis-oliufylltur-rafmagnsofn-2000w-310674/HTOI30WT9","description":"2000 W, 3 heat settings, heats up to 20 m2","source":{"name":"ELKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://media.backend.elko.is/products/apt74406_s.jpg","name":"Apt Cozy rafmagnsofn 2000W","price":"14.995 kr.","href":"https://elko.is/vorur/apt-cozy-rafmagnsofn-2000w-413223/APT74406","description":"2000 W, remote control, automatic shut-off","source":{"name":"ELKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://media.backend.elko.is/products/apt73869_s.jpg","name":"Apt Therma olífylltur rafmagnsofn 1500 W - Svartur","price":"12.995 kr.","href":"https://elko.is/vorur/apt-therma-olifylltur-rafmagnsofn-1500-w-413219/APT73869","description":"1500 W, 3 power settings, for rooms up to 20 m2","source":{"name":"ELKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://media.backend.elko.is/products/apt73868_s.jpg","name":"Apt Therma olífylltur rafmagnsofn 2000 W - Grár","price":"14.995 kr.","href":"https://elko.is/vorur/apt-therma-olifylltur-rafmagnsofn-2000-w-413225/APT73868","description":"2000 W, 3 power settings, for rooms up to 25 m2","source":{"name":"ELKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://api.byko.is/media/public/__sized__/products/174_6dd47c2e-68e5-4ae4-b9e8-798f217e3d93-thumbnail-255x255-70.jpg","name":"Hitablásari 1500w svartur ceramic","href":"https://byko.is/vara/hitablasari-1500w-svartur-ceramic-376617","description":"1500 W ceramic fan heater, three settings (high, low, fan)","source":{"name":"BYKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://api.byko.is/media/public/__sized__/products/174_2fbefcd1-d705-4638-b8c1-608a39b4e9c9-thumbnail-255x255-70.jpg","name":"Hitablásari 2000w, Hvítur","href":"https://byko.is/vara/hitablasari-2000w-hvitur-309519","description":"2000 W fan heater, white","source":{"name":"BYKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://api.byko.is/media/public/__sized__/products/174_f11ed018-1bd2-4b90-8b01-95a9db2fb7ac-thumbnail-255x255-70.jpg","name":"Olíufylltur ofn 7 þilja 1500w","href":"https://byko.is/vara/oliufylltur-ofn-7-thilja-1500w-322452","description":"1500 W oil-filled radiator, 7 fins","source":{"name":"BYKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://api.byko.is/media/public/__sized__/products/174_af6f51c9-d5c4-40c6-9d1e-ffbabcdce34b-thumbnail-255x255-70.jpg","name":"Alpina Hitablásari 1000/1500W","href":"https://byko.is/vara/vifta-10001500-w-alpina-411165","description":"1000/1500 W fan heater","source":{"name":"BYKO"}}
{"frame":"product","image":"https://api.byko.is/media/public/__sized__/products/174_fa1db0db-2703-4a4e-a351-2d75f46bd558-thumbnail-255x255-70.jpg","name":"Hitari Infrared 800W","href":"https://byko.is/vara/hitar-infrared-800-w-carbon-397775","description":"800 W standing infrared heater with handle, indoor and outdoor use","source":{"name":"BYKO"}}
{"frame":"table","columns":[{"id":"type","header":"Product type","size":170},{"id":"range","header":"Power range seen","size":150},{"id":"price","header":"Shelf price (ISK)","size":170},{"id":"retailer","header":"Retailer","size":120}]}
{"frame":"row","type":"Oil-filled electric radiator","range":"1500-2500 W","price":"12.995 - 17.995","retailer":"ELKO"}
{"frame":"row","type":"Electric heater with remote","range":"2000 W","price":"14.995","retailer":"ELKO"}
{"frame":"row","type":"Oil-filled radiator, 7 fins","range":"1500 W","price":"Not shown on listing","retailer":"BYKO"}
{"frame":"row","type":"Fan heater (ceramic or standard)","range":"1000-2000 W","price":"Not shown on listing","retailer":"BYKO"}
{"frame":"row","type":"Infrared heater","range":"800 W","price":"Not shown on listing","retailer":"BYKO"}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"body2"},"children":["Retail shelves are dominated by plug-in electric heaters: oil-filled radiators, fan heaters and infrared units from 800 to 2500 W. In the ELKO listing, oil-filled and remote-control models sit in a narrow ISK 12,995 to 17,995 band, so the price ladder is tight and crowded. Two of the ELKO lines were marked sold out (Uppselt) when fetched. The 2026 retailer snapshot covers ELKO and BYKO only. BYKO's listing page showed no prices, and the BAUHAUS fan-heater page exposed no usable product links, so those two are not priced here. Heat pumps are sold as special order through refrigeration specialists (for example Íshúsið and Kælitækni) rather than on retail shelves."]}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"h2"},"children":["Policy & Outlook"]}}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"body2"},"children":["Policy is the main demand lever. The state fully subsidises the distribution and transmission cost of electricity used for heating, up to 40,000 kWh a year per user, in homes without geothermal access. It spends more than ISK 2.5 billion a year on this for areas using electricity or oil. A separate lump-sum scheme pays owners with subsidised direct electric heating to switch to renewable options, under a 15-year agreement on the property."]}}
{"frame":"table","columns":[{"id":"driver","header":"Driver or barrier","size":210},{"id":"evidence","header":"Evidence","size":380},{"id":"effect","header":"Implication for suppliers","size":260}]}
{"frame":"row","driver":"Heat pump subsidy","evidence":"Municipal programmes exist, for example a grant of up to ISK 800,000 per applicant in Árborg, extended to 2027","effect":"Supports premium heat pump demand in cold, electric-heated areas"}
{"frame":"row","driver":"Utility-led uptake","evidence":"HEF-veitur in Múlaþing offered free expert visits on heat pump systems; nearly 60 homes took one","effect":"Installer and advisory channel matters as much as retail"}
{"frame":"row","driver":"Geothermal expansion","evidence":"Climate and Energy Fund granted ISK 1 billion across 18 projects; the energy minister says all urban areas are to get district heating","effect":"Shrinks the long-run electric and oil-heated base"}
{"frame":"row","driver":"Grid decarbonisation limits","evidence":"Heating with direct electricity is dearer than geothermal; heat pumps cut electricity use by about 30%","effect":"Heat pumps are the efficient alternative to panel heaters"}
{"frame":"row","driver":"Small, shrinking-risk addressable base","evidence":"Under 10% of homes are on electricity or oil","effect":"Niche volume; entry suits specialist heat pump and controls suppliers, not mass radiators"}
{"frame":"chunk","node":{"type":"Typography","props":{"type":"body2"},"children":["Entry view: the opportunity is heat pumps (air-to-water and air-to-air) and efficiency upgrades for electric-heated rural homes, plus low-cost portable heaters for supplementary use. Mass-market radiators face a small base and a shrinking one as district heating spreads. Confirm 2026 subsidy levels with the local authority and the energy agency before pricing."]}}
{"frame":"done"}
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Explore Iceland's heating market, focusing on heat pumps, electric heating, and policy impacts. Discover opportunities for suppliers in a geothermal-dominated landscape.